Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Besa Dobërdoll vs Detonit Plachkovica — Second League 2019

Besa Dobërdoll
Besa Dobërdoll
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Detonit Plachkovica
Detonit Plachkovica
3/9/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 20Stadion Vrapčište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Besa Dobërdoll55%
×Draw24%
Detonit Plachkovica21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besa Dobërdoll
1.66
Detonit Plachkovica
0.92

Besa Dobërdoll creates 80% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Besa Dobërdoll
2.17
Detonit Plachkovica
1.33

allows per match

Besa Dobërdoll
0.50
Detonit Plachkovica
1.15

finishing

Besa Dobërdoll+0.00on par
Detonit Plachkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besa Dobërdoll ↓

Detonit Plachkovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Besa Dobërdoll or draw
79%
Besa Dobërdoll or Detonit Plachkovica
76%
Draw or Detonit Plachkovica
45%

Winning margin

Besa Dobërdoll wins by 2+
30%
Detonit Plachkovica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Besa Dobërdoll 1+ goals
81%
Besa Dobërdoll 2+ goals
49%
Besa Dobërdoll 3+ goals
23%
Detonit Plachkovica 1+ goals
60%
Detonit Plachkovica 2+ goals
23%
Detonit Plachkovica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Besa Dobërdoll (draw refunded)
72%
Detonit Plachkovica (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besa Dobërdoll at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.50 · 30 matches

Detonit Plachkovica away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.15 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besa Dobërdoll attack 2.17 + Detonit Plachkovica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.66

Detonit Plachkovica attack 1.33 + Besa Dobërdoll defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Besa Dobërdoll scores more
55%
level
24%
Detonit Plachkovica scores more
21%

Besa Dobërdoll at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Besa Dobërdoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Besa Dobërdoll 0–0 Detonit Plachkovica

Besa Dobërdoll and Detonit Plachkovica drew 0-0 in Second League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Vrapčište in Vrapchishte.