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Dětmarovice vs Bospor Bohumín — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Dětmarovice
Dětmarovice
CANC
14:00
Bospor Bohumín
Bospor Bohumín
4/25/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 17Fotbalové hříště SK Dětmarovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dětmarovice34%
×Draw23%
Bospor Bohumín43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dětmarovice
1.52
Bospor Bohumín
1.74

Bospor Bohumín creates 14% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 77 away

creates per match

Dětmarovice
1.50
Bospor Bohumín
1.81

allows per match

Dětmarovice
1.67
Bospor Bohumín
1.55

finishing

Dětmarovice+0.00on par
Bospor Bohumín+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dětmarovice ↓

Bospor Bohumín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dětmarovice or draw
57%
Dětmarovice or Bospor Bohumín
77%
Draw or Bospor Bohumín
66%

Winning margin

Dětmarovice wins by 2+
16%
Bospor Bohumín wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Dětmarovice 1+ goals
78%
Dětmarovice 2+ goals
45%
Dětmarovice 3+ goals
20%
Bospor Bohumín 1+ goals
82%
Bospor Bohumín 2+ goals
52%
Bospor Bohumín 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dětmarovice (draw refunded)
44%
Bospor Bohumín (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dětmarovice at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Bospor Bohumín away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dětmarovice attack 1.50 + Bospor Bohumín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bospor Bohumín attack 1.81 + Dětmarovice defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dětmarovice scores more
34%
level
23%
Bospor Bohumín scores more
43%

Bospor Bohumín at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bospor Bohumín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dětmarovice host Bospor Bohumín

April 25, 2021: Dětmarovice take on Bospor Bohumín in 4. liga - Divizie F. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dětmarovice host Bospor Bohumín at Fotbalové hříště SK Dětmarovice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.