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Bospor Bohumín vs Dětmarovice — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Bospor Bohumín
Bospor Bohumín
FT
2 – 1
Dětmarovice
Dětmarovice
8/30/20204. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 4Stadion Bohumín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Bospor Bohumín73%
×Draw15%
Dětmarovice12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bospor Bohumín
2.88
Dětmarovice
1.10

Bospor Bohumín creates 162% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 18 away

creates per match

Bospor Bohumín
2.19
Dětmarovice
1.11

allows per match

Bospor Bohumín
1.09
Dětmarovice
3.56

finishing

Bospor Bohumín+0.00on par
Dětmarovice+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bospor Bohumín ↓

Dětmarovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Bospor Bohumín or draw
88%
Bospor Bohumín or Dětmarovice
85%
Draw or Dětmarovice
27%

Winning margin

Bospor Bohumín wins by 2+
53%
Dětmarovice wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bospor Bohumín 1+ goals
94%
Bospor Bohumín 2+ goals
78%
Bospor Bohumín 3+ goals
54%
Dětmarovice 1+ goals
67%
Dětmarovice 2+ goals
30%
Dětmarovice 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bospor Bohumín (draw refunded)
86%
Dětmarovice (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bospor Bohumín at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.09 · 75 matches

Dětmarovice away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bospor Bohumín attack 2.19 + Dětmarovice defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.88

Dětmarovice attack 1.11 + Bospor Bohumín defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Bospor Bohumín scores more
73%
level
15%
Dětmarovice scores more
12%

Bospor Bohumín at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Bospor Bohumín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Bospor Bohumín 2–1 Dětmarovice

Bospor Bohumín beat Dětmarovice 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on August 30, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Bohumín in Bohumín.