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Dětmarovice vs Beskyd Frenštát — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Dětmarovice
Dětmarovice
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
4/16/20224. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 18Fotbalové hříště SK Dětmarovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dětmarovice49%
×Draw22%
Beskyd Frenštát29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dětmarovice
1.94
Beskyd Frenštát
1.45

Dětmarovice creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 60 away

creates per match

Dětmarovice
1.50
Beskyd Frenštát
1.23

allows per match

Dětmarovice
1.67
Beskyd Frenštát
2.37

finishing

Dětmarovice+0.00on par
Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dětmarovice ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Dětmarovice or draw
71%
Dětmarovice or Beskyd Frenštát
78%
Draw or Beskyd Frenštát
51%

Winning margin

Dětmarovice wins by 2+
28%
Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dětmarovice 1+ goals
86%
Dětmarovice 2+ goals
58%
Dětmarovice 3+ goals
30%
Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
77%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
42%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Dětmarovice (draw refunded)
63%
Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dětmarovice at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dětmarovice attack 1.50 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.94

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Dětmarovice defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dětmarovice scores more
49%
level
22%
Beskyd Frenštát scores more
29%

Dětmarovice at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dětmarovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dětmarovice vs Beskyd Frenštát

Beskyd Frenštát beat Dětmarovice 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalové hříště SK Dětmarovice in Dětmarovice.