Beskyd Frenštát 4–4 Dětmarovice: Result & Stats

Beskyd Frenštát

FT

4 – 4

Dětmarovice

9/13/2020

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 6Stadion Na Nivách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát61%

×Draw18%

Dětmarovice21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beskyd FrenštátExpected goals in this matchDětmarovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.46

Beskyd Frenštát

2.58

Dětmarovice

1.46

Beskyd Frenštát creates 77% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 18 away

1.59

creates per match

1.11

1.80

allows per match

3.56

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát

1.59

Dětmarovice

1.11

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát

1.80

Dětmarovice

3.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Dětmarovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Dětmarovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw

79%

Beskyd Frenštát or Dětmarovice

82%

Draw or Dětmarovice

39%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+

40%

Dětmarovice wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals

92%

Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals

72%

Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals

47%

Dětmarovice 1+ goals

77%

Dětmarovice 2+ goals

43%

Dětmarovice 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)

75%

Dětmarovice (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Dětmarovice away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Dětmarovice defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 2.58

Dětmarovice attack 1.11 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more

61%

level

18%

Dětmarovice scores more

21%

Beskyd Frenštát at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Beskyd Frenštát will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff