Desportivo Huíla 0–1 Carmona: Result & Stats

Desportivo Huíla

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Carmona

4/27/2025

Girabola · Round 26Estádio Nacional da Tundavala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Desportivo Huíla72%

×Draw20%

Carmona8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Desportivo HuílaExpected goals in this matchCarmona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.48

Desportivo Huíla

1.90

Carmona

0.48

Desportivo Huíla creates 296% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 15 away

1.32

creates per match

0.33

0.64

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Desportivo Huíla

1.32

Carmona

0.33

allows per match

Desportivo Huíla

0.64

Carmona

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Carmona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Huíla ↓

Carmona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Desportivo Huíla or draw

92%

Desportivo Huíla or Carmona

80%

Draw or Carmona

28%

Winning margin

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+

45%

Carmona wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals

85%

Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals

56%

Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals

29%

Carmona 1+ goals

38%

Carmona 2+ goals

8%

Carmona 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)

89%

Carmona (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Huíla at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.64 · 101 matches

Carmona away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Huíla attack 1.32 + Carmona defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.90

Carmona attack 0.33 + Desportivo Huíla defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Desportivo Huíla scores more

72%

level

20%

Carmona scores more

8%

Desportivo Huíla at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Desportivo Huíla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff