Carmona 1–1 Desportivo Huíla: Result & Stats

Carmona

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Desportivo Huíla

11/23/2024

Girabola · Round 11Estádio 4 de Janeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Carmona31%

×Draw34%

Desportivo Huíla35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarmonaExpected goals in this matchDesportivo Huíla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

0.88

Carmona

0.80

Desportivo Huíla

0.88

Desportivo Huíla creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 100 away

0.40

creates per match

0.76

1.00

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Carmona

0.40

Desportivo Huíla

0.76

allows per match

Carmona

1.00

Desportivo Huíla

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carmona+0.00on par

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmona ↓

Desportivo Huíla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–116%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Carmona or draw

65%

Carmona or Desportivo Huíla

66%

Draw or Desportivo Huíla

69%

Winning margin

Carmona wins by 2+

10%

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Carmona 1+ goals

55%

Carmona 2+ goals

19%

Carmona 3+ goals

5%

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals

59%

Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals

22%

Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Carmona (draw refunded)

47%

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmona at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Desportivo Huíla away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmona attack 0.40 + Desportivo Huíla defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.80

Desportivo Huíla attack 0.76 + Carmona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Carmona scores more

31%

level

34%

Desportivo Huíla scores more

35%

Desportivo Huíla at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Desportivo Huíla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff