Desportivo Huíla 3–2 Atlético do Namibe

Desportivo Huíla

FT

3 – 2

Atlético do Namibe

3/17/2013

Girabola · Round 4Estádio Nacional da Tundavala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Desportivo Huíla53%

×Draw25%

Atlético do Namibe22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Desportivo HuílaExpected goals in this matchAtlético do Namibe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.95

Desportivo Huíla

1.60

Atlético do Namibe

0.95

Desportivo Huíla creates 68% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 8 away

1.32

creates per match

1.25

0.64

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Desportivo Huíla

1.32

Atlético do Namibe

1.25

allows per match

Desportivo Huíla

0.64

Atlético do Namibe

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Atlético do Namibe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Huíla ↓

Atlético do Namibe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Desportivo Huíla or draw

78%

Desportivo Huíla or Atlético do Namibe

75%

Draw or Atlético do Namibe

47%

Winning margin

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+

28%

Atlético do Namibe wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals

80%

Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals

47%

Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals

22%

Atlético do Namibe 1+ goals

61%

Atlético do Namibe 2+ goals

25%

Atlético do Namibe 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)

70%

Atlético do Namibe (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Huíla at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.64 · 101 matches

Atlético do Namibe away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Huíla attack 1.32 + Atlético do Namibe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.60

Atlético do Namibe attack 1.25 + Desportivo Huíla defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Desportivo Huíla scores more

53%

level

25%

Atlético do Namibe scores more

22%

Desportivo Huíla at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Desportivo Huíla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff