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Atlético do Namibe vs Desportivo Huíla — Girabola 2019

Atlético do Namibe
Atlético do Namibe
FT
1 – 3
Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
8/3/2013GirabolaGirabola · Round 19Estádio Joaquim Morais

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Atlético do Namibe49%
×Draw26%
Desportivo Huíla25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético do Namibe
1.54
Desportivo Huíla
1.02

Atlético do Namibe creates 51% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 100 away

creates per match

Atlético do Namibe
1.86
Desportivo Huíla
0.76

allows per match

Atlético do Namibe
1.29
Desportivo Huíla
1.21

finishing

Atlético do Namibe+0.00on par
Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético do Namibe ↓

Desportivo Huíla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético do Namibe or draw
75%
Atlético do Namibe or Desportivo Huíla
74%
Draw or Desportivo Huíla
51%

Winning margin

Atlético do Namibe wins by 2+
25%
Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético do Namibe 1+ goals
79%
Atlético do Namibe 2+ goals
45%
Atlético do Namibe 3+ goals
20%
Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
64%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
27%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético do Namibe (draw refunded)
66%
Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético do Namibe at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Desportivo Huíla away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético do Namibe attack 1.86 + Desportivo Huíla defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.54

Desportivo Huíla attack 0.76 + Atlético do Namibe defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlético do Namibe scores more
49%
level
26%
Desportivo Huíla scores more
25%

Atlético do Namibe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlético do Namibe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético do Namibe vs Desportivo Huíla

Desportivo Huíla beat Atlético do Namibe 3-1 in Girabola on August 3, 2013.

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim Morais.