Derry City W 0–4 Linfield W: Result & Stats

Derry City W

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Linfield W

C. Chambers 72'

K. Halliday 69'

E. Reilly 34'

H. Doherty 2'

6/20/2025

Premiership Women · Round 6The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Derry City W8%

×Draw11%

Linfield W80%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Derry City WExpected goals in this matchLinfield W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

3.54

Derry City W

1.14

Linfield W

3.54

Linfield W creates 211% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.27

creates per match

4.43

2.64

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Derry City W

1.27

Linfield W

4.43

allows per match

Derry City W

2.64

Linfield W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Derry City W+0.00on par

Linfield W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City W ↓

Linfield W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–37%

0–47%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Derry City W or draw

20%

Derry City W or Linfield W

89%

Draw or Linfield W

92%

Winning margin

Derry City W wins by 2+

3%

Linfield W wins by 2+

63%

Team goals

Derry City W 1+ goals

68%

Derry City W 2+ goals

32%

Derry City W 3+ goals

11%

Linfield W 1+ goals

97%

Linfield W 2+ goals

86%

Linfield W 3+ goals

66%

Draw no bet

Derry City W (draw refunded)

10%

Linfield W (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City W at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

Linfield W away — creates 4.43, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City W attack 1.27 + Linfield W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Linfield W attack 4.43 + Derry City W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 3.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Derry City W scores more

8%

level

11%

Linfield W scores more

80%

Linfield W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Linfield W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

34'

69'

72'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff