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Derry City W vs Linfield W — Premiership Women 2025

Derry City W
Derry City W
FT
1 – 3
Linfield W
Linfield W
9/27/2024Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 16The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Derry City W11%
×Draw13%
Linfield W76%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derry City W
1.23
Linfield W
3.35

Linfield W creates 172% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

creates per match

Derry City W
1.14
Linfield W
4.06

allows per match

Derry City W
2.64
Linfield W
1.31

finishing

Derry City W+0.00on par
Linfield W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City W ↓

Linfield W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Derry City W or draw
24%
Derry City W or Linfield W
87%
Draw or Linfield W
89%

Winning margin

Derry City W wins by 2+
4%
Linfield W wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

Derry City W 1+ goals
71%
Derry City W 2+ goals
35%
Derry City W 3+ goals
13%
Linfield W 1+ goals
96%
Linfield W 2+ goals
84%
Linfield W 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Derry City W (draw refunded)
12%
Linfield W (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.64 · 14 matches

Linfield W away — creates 4.06, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City W attack 1.14 + Linfield W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Linfield W attack 4.06 + Derry City W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 3.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Derry City W scores more
11%
level
13%
Linfield W scores more
76%

Linfield W at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Linfield W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Derry City W 1–3 Linfield W

Linfield W beat Derry City W 3-1 in Premiership Women on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Londonderry.