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Derry City W vs Larne W — Premiership Women 2026

Derry City W
Derry City W
Preview
18:45
Larne W
Larne W
7/24/2026Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Group StageThe Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
Big match
63%
Derry City W
model favours
63%17%19%

Larne W score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
79%
over 2.5 goals
72%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Derry City W63%
×Draw17%
Larne W19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derry City W
2.75
Larne W
1.48

Derry City W creates 86% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

creates per match

Derry City W
1.30
Larne W
0.67

allows per match

Derry City W
2.30
Larne W
4.20

finishing

Derry City W+0.00on par
Larne W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City W ↓

Larne W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Derry City W or draw
81%
Derry City W or Larne W
83%
Draw or Larne W
37%

Winning margin

Derry City W wins by 2+
43%
Larne W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Derry City W 1+ goals
93%
Derry City W 2+ goals
75%
Derry City W 3+ goals
51%
Larne W 1+ goals
77%
Larne W 2+ goals
43%
Larne W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Derry City W (draw refunded)
77%
Larne W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City W at home — creates 1.30, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

Larne W away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City W attack 1.30 + Larne W defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.75

Larne W attack 0.67 + Derry City W defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Derry City W scores more
63%
level
17%
Larne W scores more
19%

Derry City W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Derry City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Derry City W score first in only 11% of matches
  • 86% of Larne W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (67% and 86% over 2.5)
  • Derry City W have scored in 10 games running
  • 67% of Derry City W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
DLLWW
W
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derry City W face Larne W (Premiership Women)

Premiership Women returns with Derry City W hosting Larne W. Match starts July 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Derry City W host Larne W at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.