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Derio vs Beasain — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Derio
Derio
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Beasain
Beasain
12/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Derio37%
×Draw29%
Beasain34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derio
1.16
Beasain
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 80 away

creates per match

Derio
1.29
Beasain
1.20

allows per match

Derio
1.02
Beasain
1.02

finishing

Derio+0.00on par
Beasain+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derio ↓

Beasain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Derio or draw
66%
Derio or Beasain
71%
Draw or Beasain
63%

Winning margin

Derio wins by 2+
15%
Beasain wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Derio 1+ goals
69%
Derio 2+ goals
32%
Derio 3+ goals
11%
Beasain 1+ goals
67%
Beasain 2+ goals
30%
Beasain 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Derio (draw refunded)
52%
Beasain (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derio at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.02 · 52 matches

Beasain away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derio attack 1.29 + Beasain defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.16

Beasain attack 1.20 + Derio defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Derio scores more
37%
level
29%
Beasain scores more
34%

Derio at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Derio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Derio 1–4 Beasain

Beasain beat Derio 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 6, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo in Derio.