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Beasain vs Derio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Beasain
Beasain
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Derio
Derio
10/12/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Estado Municipal de Loinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Beasain46%
×Draw26%
Derio28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beasain
1.44
Derio
1.05

Beasain creates 37% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 53 away

creates per match

Beasain
1.65
Derio
1.15

allows per match

Beasain
0.95
Derio
1.23

finishing

Beasain+0.00on par
Derio+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beasain ↓

Derio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Beasain or draw
72%
Beasain or Derio
74%
Draw or Derio
54%

Winning margin

Beasain wins by 2+
22%
Derio wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Beasain 1+ goals
76%
Beasain 2+ goals
42%
Beasain 3+ goals
18%
Derio 1+ goals
65%
Derio 2+ goals
28%
Derio 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Beasain (draw refunded)
63%
Derio (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beasain at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

Derio away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beasain attack 1.65 + Derio defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Derio attack 1.15 + Beasain defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Beasain scores more
46%
level
26%
Derio scores more
28%

Beasain at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Beasain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beasain vs Derio

Beasain beat Derio 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estado Municipal de Loinaz in Beasain.