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Dergview vs Ballinamallard United — League #407 2026

Dergview
Dergview
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
B. Gallagher 90+2'
4/18/2023League #407League #407 · Relegation Round - 2Darragh Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Dergview25%
×Draw25%
Ballinamallard United50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dergview
1.04
Ballinamallard United
1.59

Ballinamallard United creates 53% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

creates per match

Dergview
0.74
Ballinamallard United
1.50

allows per match

Dergview
1.68
Ballinamallard United
1.33

finishing

Dergview+0.00on par
Ballinamallard United+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dergview ↓

Ballinamallard United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dergview or draw
50%
Dergview or Ballinamallard United
75%
Draw or Ballinamallard United
75%

Winning margin

Dergview wins by 2+
9%
Ballinamallard United wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dergview 1+ goals
65%
Dergview 2+ goals
28%
Dergview 3+ goals
9%
Ballinamallard United 1+ goals
80%
Ballinamallard United 2+ goals
47%
Ballinamallard United 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dergview (draw refunded)
33%
Ballinamallard United (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dergview at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

Ballinamallard United away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dergview attack 0.74 + Ballinamallard United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Ballinamallard United attack 1.50 + Dergview defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dergview scores more
25%
level
25%
Ballinamallard United scores more
50%

Ballinamallard United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ballinamallard United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+2'
B. Gallagher

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #407: Dergview 1–0 Ballinamallard United

Dergview beat Ballinamallard United 1-0 in League #407 on April 18, 2023.

Goals: B. Gallagher (90+2').

The match was played at Darragh Park in Castlederg.