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Ballinamallard United vs Dergview — League #407 2026

Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dergview
Dergview
A. Holder 68', 64'
M. Stafford 47'
J. Dunne 15'
Unknown 90+4', 31' (OG)
8/12/2023League #407League #407 · Round 2Ferney Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ballinamallard United65%
×Draw19%
Dergview16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballinamallard United
2.29
Dergview
1.04

Ballinamallard United creates 120% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

creates per match

Ballinamallard United
2.00
Dergview
1.00

allows per match

Ballinamallard United
1.08
Dergview
2.57

finishing

Ballinamallard United+0.00on par
Dergview+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballinamallard United ↓

Dergview →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ballinamallard United or draw
84%
Ballinamallard United or Dergview
81%
Draw or Dergview
35%

Winning margin

Ballinamallard United wins by 2+
42%
Dergview wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ballinamallard United 1+ goals
90%
Ballinamallard United 2+ goals
66%
Ballinamallard United 3+ goals
40%
Dergview 1+ goals
65%
Dergview 2+ goals
28%
Dergview 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ballinamallard United (draw refunded)
80%
Dergview (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballinamallard United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Dergview away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballinamallard United attack 2.00 + Dergview defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.29

Dergview attack 1.00 + Ballinamallard United defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ballinamallard United scores more
65%
level
19%
Dergview scores more
16%

Ballinamallard United at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ballinamallard United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
J. Dunne
31'
Own goal
42'
J. Browne
42'
J. Browne
47'
M. Stafford
64'
A. Holder
68'
A. Holder
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #407: Ballinamallard United 4–2 Dergview

Ballinamallard United beat Dergview 4-2 in League #407 on August 12, 2023.

Goals: J. Dunne (15'), ? (31' o.g., 90+4'), M. Stafford (47'), A. Holder (64', 68').

The match was played at Ferney Park in Ballinamallard.