Dergview 0–1 Annagh United: Result & Stats

Dergview

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Annagh United

2/27/2024

League #407 · Round 28Darragh Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dergview26%

×Draw26%

Annagh United48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DergviewExpected goals in this matchAnnagh United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.52

Dergview

1.05

Annagh United

1.52

Annagh United creates 45% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

0.90

creates per match

1.33

1.71

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Dergview

0.90

Annagh United

1.33

allows per match

Dergview

1.71

Annagh United

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dergview+0.00on par

Annagh United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dergview ↓

Annagh United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dergview or draw

52%

Dergview or Annagh United

74%

Draw or Annagh United

74%

Winning margin

Dergview wins by 2+

10%

Annagh United wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Dergview 1+ goals

65%

Dergview 2+ goals

28%

Dergview 3+ goals

9%

Annagh United 1+ goals

78%

Annagh United 2+ goals

45%

Annagh United 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Dergview (draw refunded)

35%

Annagh United (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dergview at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

Annagh United away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dergview attack 0.90 + Annagh United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Annagh United attack 1.33 + Dergview defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dergview scores more

26%

level

26%

Annagh United scores more

48%

Annagh United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Annagh United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff