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Annagh United vs Dergview — League #407 2026

Annagh United
Annagh United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dergview
Dergview
S. Murray 87'
A. Rogers 78', 45+2'
11/8/2022League #407League #407 · Round 6BMG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Annagh United56%
×Draw21%
Dergview23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annagh United
2.11
Dergview
1.27

Annagh United creates 66% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Annagh United
1.94
Dergview
1.28

allows per match

Annagh United
1.25
Dergview
2.28

finishing

Annagh United+0.00on par
Dergview+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annagh United ↓

Dergview →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Annagh United or draw
77%
Annagh United or Dergview
79%
Draw or Dergview
44%

Winning margin

Annagh United wins by 2+
34%
Dergview wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Annagh United 1+ goals
88%
Annagh United 2+ goals
62%
Annagh United 3+ goals
35%
Dergview 1+ goals
72%
Dergview 2+ goals
36%
Dergview 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Annagh United (draw refunded)
71%
Dergview (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annagh United at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Dergview away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annagh United attack 1.94 + Dergview defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.11

Dergview attack 1.28 + Annagh United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Annagh United scores more
56%
level
21%
Dergview scores more
23%

Annagh United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Annagh United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'
A. Rogers
78'
A. Rogers
87'
S. Murray

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Annagh United vs Dergview

Annagh United beat Dergview 3-0 in League #407 on November 8, 2022.

Goals: A. Rogers (45+2', 78'), S. Murray (87').

The match was played at BMG Arena in Portadown.