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Deren vs BCH Lions — Premier League 2020

Deren
Deren
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
BCH Lions
BCH Lions
5/6/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Deren83%
×Draw9%
BCH Lions8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deren
4.68
BCH Lions
1.54

Deren creates 204% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 13 away

creates per match

Deren
2.82
BCH Lions
1.85

allows per match

Deren
1.23
BCH Lions
6.54

finishing

Deren+0.00on par
BCH Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deren ↓

BCH Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–21%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–18%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 61% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
84%16%4.5
68%32%

Double chance

Deren or draw
92%
Deren or BCH Lions
91%
Draw or BCH Lions
17%

Winning margin

Deren wins by 2+
68%
BCH Lions wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Deren 1+ goals
99%
Deren 2+ goals
93%
Deren 3+ goals
81%
BCH Lions 1+ goals
79%
BCH Lions 2+ goals
45%
BCH Lions 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Deren (draw refunded)
91%
BCH Lions (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deren at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

BCH Lions away — creates 1.85, concedes 6.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deren attack 2.82 + BCH Lions defence 6.54 → ÷2 → 4.68

BCH Lions attack 1.85 + Deren defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Deren scores more
83%
level
9%
BCH Lions scores more
8%

Deren at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Deren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deren vs BCH Lions

Deren beat BCH Lions 5-0 in Premier League on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.