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BCH Lions vs Deren — Premier League 2020

BCH Lions
BCH Lions
FT
0 – 9
HT: 0 – 3
Deren
Deren
3/12/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

BCH Lions4%
×Draw6%
Deren90%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BCH Lions
1.01
Deren
4.65

Deren creates 360% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 80 away

creates per match

BCH Lions
0.86
Deren
2.66

allows per match

BCH Lions
6.64
Deren
1.16

finishing

BCH Lions+0.00on par
Deren+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BCH Lions ↓

Deren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–25%
0–37%
0–48%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–25%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

BCH Lions or draw
10%
BCH Lions or Deren
94%
Draw or Deren
96%

Winning margin

BCH Lions wins by 2+
1%
Deren wins by 2+
78%

Team goals

BCH Lions 1+ goals
64%
BCH Lions 2+ goals
27%
BCH Lions 3+ goals
8%
Deren 1+ goals
99%
Deren 2+ goals
93%
Deren 3+ goals
81%

Draw no bet

BCH Lions (draw refunded)
4%
Deren (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BCH Lions at home — creates 0.86, concedes 6.64 · 14 matches

Deren away — creates 2.66, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BCH Lions attack 0.86 + Deren defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01

Deren attack 2.66 + BCH Lions defence 6.64 → ÷2 → 4.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

BCH Lions scores more
4%
level
6%
Deren scores more
90%

Deren at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Deren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: BCH Lions 0–9 Deren

Deren beat BCH Lions 9-0 in Premier League on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.