Deren 2–3 Bayanzürkh Sporting: Result & Stats

Deren

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Bayanzürkh Sporting

4/16/2024

Premier League · Round 16Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Deren59%

×Draw18%

Bayanzürkh Sporting23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerenExpected goals in this matchBayanzürkh Sporting

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

1.76

Deren

2.80

Bayanzürkh Sporting

1.76

Deren creates 59% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 28 away

2.82

creates per match

2.29

1.23

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Deren

2.82

Bayanzürkh Sporting

2.29

allows per match

Deren

1.23

Bayanzürkh Sporting

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deren+0.00on par

Bayanzürkh Sporting+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deren ↓

Bayanzürkh Sporting →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Deren or draw

77%

Deren or Bayanzürkh Sporting

82%

Draw or Bayanzürkh Sporting

41%

Winning margin

Deren wins by 2+

39%

Bayanzürkh Sporting wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deren 1+ goals

94%

Deren 2+ goals

76%

Deren 3+ goals

52%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 1+ goals

83%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 2+ goals

52%

Bayanzürkh Sporting 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Deren (draw refunded)

71%

Bayanzürkh Sporting (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deren at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

Bayanzürkh Sporting away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deren attack 2.82 + Bayanzürkh Sporting defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.80

Bayanzürkh Sporting attack 2.29 + Deren defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Deren scores more

59%

level

18%

Bayanzürkh Sporting scores more

23%

Deren at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Deren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff