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Bayanzürkh Sporting vs Deren — Premier League 2020

Bayanzürkh Sporting
Bayanzürkh Sporting
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Deren
Deren
3/22/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bayanzürkh Sporting13%
×Draw15%
Deren72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayanzürkh Sporting
1.15
Deren
2.89

Deren creates 151% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 80 away

creates per match

Bayanzürkh Sporting
1.15
Deren
2.66

allows per match

Bayanzürkh Sporting
3.12
Deren
1.16

finishing

Bayanzürkh Sporting+0.00on par
Deren+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayanzürkh Sporting ↓

Deren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Bayanzürkh Sporting or draw
28%
Bayanzürkh Sporting or Deren
85%
Draw or Deren
87%

Winning margin

Bayanzürkh Sporting wins by 2+
5%
Deren wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Bayanzürkh Sporting 1+ goals
68%
Bayanzürkh Sporting 2+ goals
32%
Bayanzürkh Sporting 3+ goals
11%
Deren 1+ goals
94%
Deren 2+ goals
78%
Deren 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Bayanzürkh Sporting (draw refunded)
15%
Deren (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayanzürkh Sporting at home — creates 1.15, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

Deren away — creates 2.66, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayanzürkh Sporting attack 1.15 + Deren defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Deren attack 2.66 + Bayanzürkh Sporting defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Bayanzürkh Sporting scores more
13%
level
15%
Deren scores more
72%

Deren at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Deren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bayanzürkh Sporting 0–3 Deren

Deren beat Bayanzürkh Sporting 3-0 in Premier League on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.