Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deren vs Bavarians — Premier League 2020

Deren
Deren
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bavarians
Bavarians
9/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Deren81%
×Draw11%
Bavarians8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deren
3.75
Bavarians
1.19

Deren creates 215% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 13 away

creates per match

Deren
2.82
Bavarians
1.15

allows per match

Deren
1.23
Bavarians
4.69

finishing

Deren+0.00on par
Bavarians+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deren ↓

Bavarians →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Deren or draw
92%
Deren or Bavarians
89%
Draw or Bavarians
19%

Winning margin

Deren wins by 2+
65%
Bavarians wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Deren 1+ goals
97%
Deren 2+ goals
88%
Deren 3+ goals
70%
Bavarians 1+ goals
70%
Bavarians 2+ goals
33%
Bavarians 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deren (draw refunded)
91%
Bavarians (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deren at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

Bavarians away — creates 1.15, concedes 4.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deren attack 2.82 + Bavarians defence 4.69 → ÷2 → 3.75

Bavarians attack 1.15 + Deren defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Deren scores more
81%
level
11%
Bavarians scores more
8%

Deren at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Deren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deren vs Bavarians

Deren beat Bavarians 5-1 in Premier League on September 29, 2023.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.