Bavarians 0–6 Deren: Result & Stats

Bavarians

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 1

Deren

4/13/2024

Premier League · Round 15Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bavarians5%

×Draw8%

Deren87%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BavariansExpected goals in this matchDeren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

4.65

Bavarians

1.23

Deren

4.65

Deren creates 278% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 80 away

1.29

creates per match

2.66

6.64

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Bavarians

1.29

Deren

2.66

allows per match

Bavarians

6.64

Deren

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bavarians+0.00on par

Deren+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bavarians ↓

Deren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–12%

0–24%

0–36%

0–47%

1

1–00%

1–12%

1–25%

1–37%

1–48%

2

2–00%

2–11%

2–23%

2–34%

2–45%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

80%20%4.5

63%37%

Double chance

Bavarians or draw

13%

Bavarians or Deren

92%

Draw or Deren

95%

Winning margin

Bavarians wins by 2+

2%

Deren wins by 2+

74%

Team goals

Bavarians 1+ goals

71%

Bavarians 2+ goals

35%

Bavarians 3+ goals

13%

Deren 1+ goals

99%

Deren 2+ goals

93%

Deren 3+ goals

81%

Draw no bet

Bavarians (draw refunded)

6%

Deren (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bavarians at home — creates 1.29, concedes 6.64 · 14 matches

Deren away — creates 2.66, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bavarians attack 1.29 + Deren defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Deren attack 2.66 + Bavarians defence 6.64 → ÷2 → 4.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Bavarians scores more

5%

level

8%

Deren scores more

87%

Deren at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Deren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff