Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Derby vs Wrexham — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
Preview
14:00
Wrexham
Wrexham
10/10/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 9Pride Park
37%
Derby
model favours
37%28%36%
1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Derby37%
×Draw28%
Wrexham36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.19
Wrexham
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 23 away

creates per match

Derby
1.15
Wrexham
1.22

allows per match

Derby
1.12
Wrexham
1.22

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Wrexham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw
64%
Derby or Wrexham
72%
Draw or Wrexham
63%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
15%
Wrexham wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
70%
Derby 2+ goals
33%
Derby 3+ goals
12%
Wrexham 1+ goals
69%
Wrexham 2+ goals
33%
Wrexham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
51%
Wrexham (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.15 + Wrexham defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Wrexham attack 1.22 + Derby defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Derby scores more
37%
level
28%
Wrexham scores more
36%

Derby at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Derby
LWLWL
Wrexham
DDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derby face Wrexham (Championship)

Championship returns with Derby hosting Wrexham. Match starts October 10, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Derby host Wrexham at Pride Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.