Derby vs Watford: Preview & Prediction

Derby

Preview

15:00

Watford

11/28/2026

Championship · Round 18Pride Park

Big match

43%

Derby

model favours

43%27%30%

Watford score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

under 2.5 goals

50%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Derby43%

×Draw27%

Watford30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.09

Derby

1.38

Watford

1.09

Derby creates 27% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 40 away

1.16

creates per match

1.02

1.16

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Derby

1.16

Watford

1.02

allows per match

Derby

1.16

Watford

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Derby+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw

70%

Derby or Watford

73%

Draw or Watford

57%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

21%

Watford wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

75%

Derby 2+ goals

40%

Derby 3+ goals

16%

Watford 1+ goals

66%

Watford 2+ goals

30%

Watford 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

59%

Watford (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

Watford away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.60 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.16 + Watford defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

Watford attack 1.02 + Derby defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Derby scores more

43%

level

27%

Watford scores more

30%

Derby at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Watford have scored in 10 games running
Both teams score in 80% of Watford’s matches
Watford have won 5 of the last 5 meetings
Watford raise their game against the top half — 38% wins vs the upper half, only 23% vs the lower
Watford outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.1 expected)