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Derby vs Watford — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Watford
Watford
João Pedro 76'
10/16/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 46+ matches

Derby43%
×Draw28%
Watford29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.30
Watford
1.01

Derby creates 29% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 60 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Watford
1.01

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Watford
1.38

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Watford-0.01on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Derby or draw
71%
Derby or Watford
72%
Draw or Watford
57%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
20%
Watford wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
73%
Derby 2+ goals
37%
Derby 3+ goals
14%
Watford 1+ goals
64%
Watford 2+ goals
27%
Watford 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
60%
Watford (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Watford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Watford attack 1.01 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Derby scores more
43%
level
28%
Watford scores more
29%

Derby at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
B. WilmotWatfordWatford · D
7.7

Match Events

58'
George Evans
64'
T. Lawrence← D. Holmes
71'
C. Cathcart← W. Troost-Ekong
76'
João Pedro↳ B. Wilmot
80'
J. Hector-Ingram← G. Shinnie
86'
M. Whittaker← L. Buchanan
86'
G. Murray← João Pedro
89'
J. Garner← Domingos Quina
90'
Ben Wilmot

Possession

52%Derby

Shots

9Derby

Pass accuracy

51%Derby

Statistics

DerbyWatford
Overview
52%Possession48%
9Total Shots8
3Corners3
10Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots8
1On Target1
5Off Target5
3Blocked2
2Inside Box4
7Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
510Total Passes447
412Accurate Passes344
81%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls10
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Championship: Derby 0–1 Watford

Watford beat Derby 1-0 in Championship on October 16, 2020.

Goals: João Pedro (76').

Derby controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.