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Derby vs Stoke City — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
Preview
14:00
Stoke City
Stoke City
10/17/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11Pride Park
Big match
47%
Derby
model favours
47%28%25%

Stoke City raise their game against the top half — 33% wins vs the upper half, only 32% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Derby47%
×Draw28%
Stoke City25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.34
Stoke City
0.89

Derby creates 51% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 32 away

creates per match

Derby
1.38
Stoke City
0.78

allows per match

Derby
1.00
Stoke City
1.31

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Derby or draw
75%
Derby or Stoke City
72%
Draw or Stoke City
53%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
22%
Stoke City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
74%
Derby 2+ goals
39%
Derby 3+ goals
15%
Stoke City 1+ goals
59%
Stoke City 2+ goals
22%
Stoke City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
65%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 52 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.38 + Stoke City defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Stoke City attack 0.78 + Derby defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Derby scores more
47%
level
28%
Stoke City scores more
25%

Derby at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Derby
LWLWL
City
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derby face Stoke City (Championship)

Championship returns with Derby hosting Stoke City. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Derby host Stoke City at Pride Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.