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Derby vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stoke City
Stoke City
3/13/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 46+ matches

Derby46%
×Draw27%
Stoke City27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.42
Stoke City
1.03

Derby creates 38% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 51 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Stoke City
1.05

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Stoke City
1.62

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Stoke City-0.29scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw
73%
Derby or Stoke City
73%
Draw or Stoke City
54%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
22%
Stoke City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
76%
Derby 2+ goals
41%
Derby 3+ goals
17%
Stoke City 1+ goals
64%
Stoke City 2+ goals
28%
Stoke City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
63%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.62 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Stoke City defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.42

Stoke City attack 1.05 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Derby scores more
46%
level
27%
Stoke City scores more
27%

Derby at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37
J. BogleDerbyDerby · D
8.2

Match Events

45+1'
M. Diouf← B. Afobe
61'
A. Williams← C. Adam
70'
Ashley Williams
71'
J. Marriott← M. Waghorn
83'
J. Mitchell-Lawson← T. Lawrence
85'
D. Fletcher← R. Woods
89'
Ryan Shawcross

Possession

52%Derby

Shots

19Derby

Pass accuracy

52%Derby

Statistics

DerbyStoke
Overview
52%Possession48%
19Total Shots5
4Corners3
9Fouls11
Shots
19Total Shots5
4On Target0
10Off Target4
5Blocked1
6Inside Box3
13Outside Box2
Passing
52%Possession48%
451Total Passes410
338Accurate Passes289
75%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls11
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Championship: Derby 0–0 Stoke City

Derby and Stoke City drew 0-0 in Championship on March 13, 2019.

Derby controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 5.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.