Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Derby vs QPR — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
QPR
QPR
T. Lawrence 10'
A. Gray 90'
C. Willock 50'
11/29/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 20Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 46+ matches

Derby44%
×Draw29%
QPR27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.25
QPR
0.90

Derby creates 39% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 60 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
QPR
0.79

allows per match

Derby
1.01
QPR
1.28

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
QPR+0.11scores more

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Derby or draw
73%
Derby or QPR
71%
Draw or QPR
56%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
20%
QPR wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
71%
Derby 2+ goals
36%
Derby 3+ goals
13%
QPR 1+ goals
59%
QPR 2+ goals
23%
QPR 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
62%
QPR (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.28 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + QPR defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

QPR attack 0.79 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Derby scores more
44%
level
29%
QPR scores more
27%

Derby at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
C. WillockQPRQPR · F
8.0

Match Events

10'
T. Lawrence↳ G. Shinnie
50'
C. Willock↳ C. Austin
53'
M. Odubajo← L. Wallace
69'
K. Jóźwiak← R. Morrison
76'
A. Gray← C. Austin
79'
F. Ebosele← G. Shinnie
79'
C. Kazim-Richards← J. Knight
90+1'
Andre Gray
90+3'
S. Field← C. Willock
90'
A. Gray

Possession

45%Derby

Shots

6Derby

Pass accuracy

48%Derby

Statistics

DerbyQPR
Overview
45%Possession55%
6Total Shots10
1Corners11
9Fouls11
Shots
6Total Shots10
1On Target4
4Off Target4
1Blocked2
4Inside Box9
2Outside Box1
Passing
45%Possession55%
442Total Passes513
336Accurate Passes414
76%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
9Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides4

Championship: Derby 1–2 QPR

QPR beat Derby 2-1 in Championship on November 29, 2021.

Goals: T. Lawrence (10'), C. Willock (50'), A. Gray (90').

QPR controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.