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Derby vs QPR — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
QPR
QPR
H. Wilson 90+11', 90+4' (pen)
4/22/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 44Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 46+ matches

Derby44%
×Draw29%
QPR27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.25
QPR
0.90

Derby creates 39% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 60 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
QPR
0.79

allows per match

Derby
1.01
QPR
1.28

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
QPR+0.11scores more

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Derby or draw
73%
Derby or QPR
71%
Draw or QPR
56%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
20%
QPR wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
71%
Derby 2+ goals
36%
Derby 3+ goals
13%
QPR 1+ goals
59%
QPR 2+ goals
23%
QPR 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
62%
QPR (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.28 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + QPR defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

QPR attack 0.79 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Derby scores more
44%
level
29%
QPR scores more
27%

Derby at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
H. WilsonDerbyDerby · M
9.5

Match Events

38'
M. Bennett← C. Bryson
42'
Paweł Wszołek
54'
Josh Scowen
67'
Massimo Luongo
69'
J. Marriott← M. Waghorn
73'
M. Smith← T. Hemed
78'
D. Nugent← T. Lawrence
82'
E. Eze← B. Osayi-Samuel
90'
Mason Bennett
90+6'
L. Walker← N. Wells
90+4'
H. WilsonPenalty
90+11'
H. Wilson 1↳ J. Marriott

Possession

59%Derby

Shots

17Derby

Pass accuracy

55%Derby

Statistics

DerbyQPR
Overview
59%Possession41%
17Total Shots11
8Corners2
10Fouls16
Shots
17Total Shots11
8On Target2
6Off Target7
3Blocked2
10Inside Box6
7Outside Box5
Passing
59%Possession41%
445Total Passes295
332Accurate Passes179
75%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls16
1Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Derby vs QPR

Derby beat QPR 2-0 in Championship on April 22, 2019.

Goals: H. Wilson (90+4' pen), H. Wilson 1 (90+11').

Derby controlled possession (59%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.