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Derby vs Preston — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
Preview
15:00
Preston
Preston
3/20/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 39Pride Park
Big match
46%
Derby
model favours
46%27%27%

Preston score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Derby46%
×Draw27%
Preston27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.40
Preston
1.01

Derby creates 39% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 44 away

creates per match

Derby
1.28
Preston
1.00

allows per match

Derby
1.02
Preston
1.52

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw
73%
Derby or Preston
73%
Draw or Preston
54%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
22%
Preston wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
75%
Derby 2+ goals
41%
Derby 3+ goals
17%
Preston 1+ goals
64%
Preston 2+ goals
27%
Preston 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
63%
Preston (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

Preston away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.28 + Preston defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

Preston attack 1.00 + Derby defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Derby scores more
46%
level
27%
Preston scores more
27%

Derby at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 76% of Preston’s matches
  • Preston win just 21% of their away games
  • Derby outscore their xG (1.4 vs 1.1 expected)
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged just 1.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Derby
Direct / counter-attacking
Preston
Balanced
41%PossessionBiggest gap47%
72%Pass accuracy72%
9.9Shots10.4
1.09xG1.05
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
DerbyPreston

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Derby
1
Draws
1
Preston
Avg goals: 1.4BTTS: 20%
1–00–12–01–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Derby
LWLWL
Preston
WLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derby face Preston (Championship)

Championship returns with Derby hosting Preston. Match starts March 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Derby host Preston at Pride Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.