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Derby vs Norwich — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
Preview
19:45
Norwich
Norwich
11/3/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 14Pride Park
Big match
41%
Norwich
model favours
31%27%41%

Norwich win just 27% against the top half (vs 54% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Derby31%
×Draw27%
Norwich41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.11
Norwich
1.32

Norwich creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Derby
1.07
Norwich
1.52

allows per match

Derby
1.12
Norwich
1.16

finishing

Derby+0.16scores more
Norwich+0.05on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw
59%
Derby or Norwich
73%
Draw or Norwich
69%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
12%
Norwich wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
67%
Derby 2+ goals
30%
Derby 3+ goals
10%
Norwich 1+ goals
73%
Norwich 2+ goals
38%
Norwich 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
43%
Norwich (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.12 · 13 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.07 + Norwich defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Norwich attack 1.52 + Derby defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Derby scores more
31%
level
27%
Norwich scores more
41%

Norwich at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Derby
Balanced
Norwich
Possession-dominant
45%Possession55%
74%Pass accuracy80%
10.1Shots12.9
1.05xGBiggest gap1.60
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
DerbyNorwich

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Derby
1
Draws
3
Norwich
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
1–21–01–12–30–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Derby
LWLWL
Norwich
DWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Derby host Norwich

November 3, 2026: Derby take on Norwich in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Derby host Norwich at Pride Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.