Derby 2–3 Norwich: Result & Stats | Championship

Derby

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Norwich

C. Blackett-Taylor 90+1'

C. Forsyth 60'

Borja Sainz 87', 65', 45+3'

9/28/2024

Championship · Round 7Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Derby38%

×Draw28%

Norwich35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.17

Derby

1.23

Norwich

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 24 away

1.26

creates per match

1.27

1.06

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Derby

1.26

Norwich

1.27

allows per match

Derby

1.06

Norwich

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Derby+0.00on par

Norwich+0.15scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw

65%

Derby or Norwich

72%

Draw or Norwich

62%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

16%

Norwich wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

71%

Derby 2+ goals

35%

Derby 3+ goals

13%

Norwich 1+ goals

69%

Norwich 2+ goals

33%

Norwich 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

52%

Norwich (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.26 + Norwich defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Norwich attack 1.27 + Derby defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Derby scores more

38%

level

28%

Norwich scores more

35%

Derby at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Borja Sainz

Norwich · M

9.5

Match Events

21'

Craig Forsyth

24'

Shane Duffy

45+3'

Borja Sainz↳ J. Sargent

58'

A. Ben Slimane← O. Schwartau

60'

C. Forsyth

65'

Borja Sainz↳ K. McLean

71'

M. Harness← N. Mendez-Laing

71'

T. Chirewa← B. Osborn

71'

K. Wilson← R. Nyambe

77'

Tawanda Chirewa

77'

B. Chrisene← A. Crnac

78'

J. Stacey← K. Fisher

79'

Kenzo Goudmijn

81'

C. Blackett-Taylor← E. Adams

81'

J. Collins← J. Yates

87'

Borja Sainz↳ J. Sargent

88'

A. Forson← Borja Sainz

88'

G. Hanley← C. Doyle

90+5'

José Córdoba

90+1'

C. Blackett-Taylor↳ C. Forsyth

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyNorwich

Overview

41%Possession59%

16Total Shots10

1.42Expected Goals (xG)1.96

9Corners5

13Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots10

5On Target5

6Off Target3

5Blocked2

11Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

41%Possession59%

335Total Passes503

267Accurate Passes432

80%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.76Goals Prevented-0.76

Discipline

13Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Derby vs Norwich

Norwich beat Derby 3-2 in Championship on September 28, 2024.

Goals: Borja Sainz (45+3', 65', 87'), C. Forsyth (60'), C. Blackett-Taylor (90+1').

Norwich controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.

Derby vs Norwich — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Derby vs Norwich