Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Derby vs Norwich — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Norwich
Norwich
K. Dowell 21'
4/10/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 41Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Derby38%
×Draw27%
Norwich35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.25
Norwich
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 30 away

creates per match

Derby
1.23
Norwich
1.36

allows per match

Derby
1.00
Norwich
1.27

finishing

Derby+0.03on par
Norwich+0.11scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw
65%
Derby or Norwich
73%
Draw or Norwich
62%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
17%
Norwich wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
71%
Derby 2+ goals
36%
Derby 3+ goals
13%
Norwich 1+ goals
69%
Norwich 2+ goals
33%
Norwich 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
52%
Norwich (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.23 + Norwich defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Norwich attack 1.36 + Derby defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Derby scores more
38%
level
27%
Norwich scores more
35%

Derby at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
G. HanleyNorwichNorwich · D
8.2

Match Events

11'
Graeme Shinnie
15'
Max Bird
20'
Craig Forsyth
21'
K. Dowell
62'
M. Stiepermann← K. Dowell
63'
P. Płacheta← E. Buendía
68'
Patrick Roberts
69'
L. Sibley← K. Jóźwiak
84'
F. Ebosele← K. MacDonald
84'
L. Watson← T. Lawrence
85'
J. Hugill← T. Pukki
89'
A. Tettey← T. Cantwell

Possession

38%Derby

Shots

11Derby

Pass accuracy

48%Derby

Statistics

DerbyNorwich
Overview
38%Possession62%
11Total Shots13
5Corners5
17Fouls6
Shots
11Total Shots13
3On Target4
5Off Target5
3Blocked4
6Inside Box7
5Outside Box6
Passing
38%Possession62%
367Total Passes603
289Accurate Passes517
79%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls6
4Yellow Cards0
1Offsides0

Championship: Derby 0–1 Norwich

Norwich beat Derby 1-0 in Championship on April 10, 2021.

Goals: K. Dowell (21').

Norwich controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.