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Derby vs Norwich — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Norwich
Norwich
C. Bryson 86'
T. Klose 69'
10/3/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 46+ matches

Derby42%
×Draw27%
Norwich30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.35
Norwich
1.10

Derby creates 23% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 61 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Norwich
1.20

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Norwich
1.48

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Norwich+0.13scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Norwich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw
70%
Derby or Norwich
73%
Draw or Norwich
58%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
20%
Norwich wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
74%
Derby 2+ goals
39%
Derby 3+ goals
15%
Norwich 1+ goals
67%
Norwich 2+ goals
30%
Norwich 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
58%
Norwich (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Norwich defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.35

Norwich attack 1.20 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Derby scores more
42%
level
27%
Norwich scores more
30%

Derby at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
B. JohnsonDerbyDerby · M
8.0

Match Events

45'
Christoph Zimmermann
53'
Jamal Lewis
60'
T. Lawrence← M. Bennett
61'
Jayden Bogle
65'
J. Marriott← D. Nugent
69'
T. Klose↳ E. Buendía
71'
M. Waghorn← H. Wilson
83'
M. Vrančić← M. Stiepermann
85'
L. Thompson← E. Buendía
86'
C. Bryson↳ M. Waghorn
90'
J. Rhodes← T. Cantwell

Possession

57%Derby

Shots

14Derby

Pass accuracy

51%Derby

Statistics

DerbyNorwich
Overview
57%Possession43%
14Total Shots14
7Corners8
12Fouls17
Shots
14Total Shots14
6On Target5
4Off Target3
4Blocked6
11Inside Box7
3Outside Box7
Passing
57%Possession43%
546Total Passes401
437Accurate Passes307
80%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls17
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Championship: Derby 1–1 Norwich

Derby and Norwich drew 1-1 in Championship on October 3, 2018.

Goals: T. Klose (69'), C. Bryson (86').

Derby controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.