Derby 1–3 Leicester: Result & Stats | Championship

Derby

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Leicester

S. Langas 63'

J. James 31'

O. Skipp 15'

B. De Cordova-Reid 8'

12/6/2025

Championship · Round 19Pride Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Derby35%

×Draw27%

Leicester38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.28

Derby

1.23

Leicester

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

1.10

creates per match

1.42

1.14

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Derby

1.10

Leicester

1.42

allows per match

Derby

1.14

Leicester

1.35

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Derby+0.08on par

Leicester-0.09on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Derby or draw

62%

Derby or Leicester

73%

Draw or Leicester

65%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

15%

Leicester wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

71%

Derby 2+ goals

35%

Derby 3+ goals

13%

Leicester 1+ goals

72%

Leicester 2+ goals

37%

Leicester 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

48%

Leicester (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 17 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.10 + Leicester defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Leicester attack 1.42 + Derby defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Derby scores more

35%

level

27%

Leicester scores more

38%

Leicester at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. James

Leicester · M

8.2

Match Events

8'

B. De Cordova-Reid↳ J. James

15'

O. Skipp

19'

Jannik Vestergaard

22'

Ebou Adams

24'

Sondre Klingen Langås

31'

J. James↳ L. Thomas

46'

A. Weimann← L. Salvesen

46'

L. Thompson← E. Adams

63'

S. Langas↳ J. Ward

64'

Bobby Decordova-Reid

65'

H. Choudhury← B. De Cordova-Reid

66'

C. Blackett-Taylor← B. Brereton Diaz

66'

K. Jackson← D. Sanderson

77'

Liam Thompson

78'

S. Thomas← J. Ayew

78'

P. Daka← I. Fatawu

87'

O. Aluko← S. Mavididi

87'

L. Page← J. James

90+1'

C. Nelson← C. Elder

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyLeicester

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots4

1.43Expected Goals (xG)1.20

6Corners2

11Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots4

5On Target4

2Off Target0

11Blocked0

10Inside Box4

8Outside Box0

Passing

62%Possession38%

432Total Passes274

352Accurate Passes197

81%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

0.33Goals Prevented0.33

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1