Derby 1–3 Leicester: Result & Stats

Derby

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester

T. Barkhuizen 65'

C. Wright 87'

P. Daka 79'

K. Iheanacho 55'

7/23/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Derby23%

×Draw22%

Leicester55%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

2.00

Derby

1.21

Leicester

2.00

Leicester creates 65% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Derby

1.67

Leicester

2.00

allows per match

Derby

2.00

Leicester

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Derby+0.00on par

Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Derby or draw

45%

Derby or Leicester

78%

Draw or Leicester

77%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

9%

Leicester wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

70%

Derby 2+ goals

34%

Derby 3+ goals

12%

Leicester 1+ goals

86%

Leicester 2+ goals

59%

Leicester 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

29%

Leicester (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Leicester away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.67 + Leicester defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Leicester attack 2.00 + Derby defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Derby scores more

23%

level

22%

Leicester scores more

55%

Leicester at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

58'

62'

65'

73'

H. Roberts← C. Forsyth

73'

T. Barkhuizen← L. Sibley

77'

D. Praet← H. Choudhury

79'

P. Daka

80'

N. Mendez-Laing← J. Stretton

82'

C. Hourihane← L. Thompson

87'

C. Wright

87'

C. Davies← E. Cashin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff