Derby 0–1 Leicester: Result & Stats | Championship

Derby

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Leicester

L. Grant 37' (OG)

8/17/2013

Championship · Round 3Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 38+ matches

Derby37%

×Draw27%

Leicester36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.25

Derby

1.27

Leicester

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 38 away

1.22

creates per match

1.49

1.01

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Derby

1.22

Leicester

1.49

allows per match

Derby

1.01

Leicester

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Derby+0.00on par

Leicester+0.06on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Derby or draw

64%

Derby or Leicester

73%

Draw or Leicester

63%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

16%

Leicester wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

72%

Derby 2+ goals

36%

Derby 3+ goals

14%

Leicester 1+ goals

71%

Leicester 2+ goals

36%

Leicester 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

51%

Leicester (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.31 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Leicester defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Leicester attack 1.49 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Derby scores more

37%

level

27%

Leicester scores more

36%

Derby at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

L. GrantOwn goal

71'

J. Ward← P. Coutts

71'

L. Dyer← M. James

71'

A. Knockaert← C. Wood

79'

C. Sammon← J. Russell

79'

M. Waghorn← J. Vardy

Derby

Leicester

1

5

2

18

10

8

▼

James

4

Drinkwate

35

Nugent

39

▼

Wood

9

▼

Vardy

15

Schlupp

1

🥅

6

25

17

4

3

7

▼

Coutts

8

Hendrick

19

Hughes

11

▼

Russell

9

Martin

71'▲J. Ward←▼P. Coutts

79'▲C. Sammon←▼J. Russell

Derby substitutes

10Ward18Sammon2Smith12Jacobs14Eustace16Davies26Legzdins

71'▲L. Dyer←▼M. James

71'▲A. Knockaert←▼C. Wood

79'▲M. Waghorn←▼J. Vardy

Leicester substitutes

11Dyer24Knockaert14Waghorn6Whitbread16Danns25Logan21Bakayogo