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Derby vs Hull City — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
M. Clarke 64'
1/18/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 28Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 46+ matches

Derby44%
×Draw27%
Hull City29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.38
Hull City
1.06

Derby creates 30% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 59 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Hull City
1.11

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Hull City
1.53

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Hull City+0.08on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw
71%
Derby or Hull City
73%
Draw or Hull City
56%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
21%
Hull City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
75%
Derby 2+ goals
40%
Derby 3+ goals
16%
Hull City 1+ goals
65%
Hull City 2+ goals
29%
Hull City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
60%
Hull City (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Hull City defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Hull City attack 1.11 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Derby scores more
44%
level
27%
Hull City scores more
29%

Derby at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
T. LawrenceDerbyDerby · M
7.7

Match Events

62'
M. Samuelsen← J. Bowler
64'
M. Clarke↳ T. Lawrence
71'
G. Honeyman← J. Irvine
71'
M. Wilks← J. Magennis
78'
Jason Knight
81'
Andre Wisdom
86'
Tom Lawrence

Possession

63%Derby

Shots

12Derby

Pass accuracy

54%Derby

Statistics

DerbyHull
Overview
63%Possession37%
12Total Shots10
5Corners5
12Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots10
2On Target1
4Off Target6
6Blocked3
4Inside Box5
8Outside Box5
Passing
63%Possession37%
520Total Passes290
422Accurate Passes202
81%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls11
3Yellow Cards0
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Derby vs Hull City

Derby beat Hull City 1-0 in Championship on January 18, 2020.

Goals: M. Clarke (64').

Derby controlled possession (63%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.