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Derby vs Coventry — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
FT
3 – 5
HT: 2 – 2
Coventry
Coventry
E. Adams 50'
C. Morris 45' (pen)
C. Elder 12'
V. Torp 79'
E. Mason-Clark 75'
B. Thomas-Asante 72'
H. Wright 25' (pen)
B. Thomas 7'
8/16/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 2Pride Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Derby34%
×Draw26%
Coventry40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.25
Coventry
1.37

Coventry creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Derby
1.13
Coventry
1.37

allows per match

Derby
1.37
Coventry
1.36

finishing

Derby+0.12scores more
Coventry+0.41scores more

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Derby or draw
60%
Derby or Coventry
74%
Draw or Coventry
66%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
15%
Coventry wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
71%
Derby 2+ goals
36%
Derby 3+ goals
13%
Coventry 1+ goals
75%
Coventry 2+ goals
40%
Coventry 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
46%
Coventry (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 8 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.36 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.13 + Coventry defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Coventry attack 1.37 + Derby defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Derby scores more
34%
level
26%
Coventry scores more
40%

Coventry at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
E. AdamsDerbyDerby · F
7.9

Match Events

7'
B. Thomas
12'
C. Elder
25'
H. WrightPenalty
45+1'
Matthew Clarke
45+1'
Bobby Thomas
45'
C. MorrisPenalty
50'
E. Adams
55'
Matt Grimes
62'
Ryan Nyambe
72'
B. Thomas-Asante
75'
E. Mason-Clark↳ M. van Ewijk
76'
Haji Wright
79'
V. Torp↳ M. van Ewijk
81'
B. Clark← D. Batth
81'
J. Ward← D. Ozoh
81'
A. Weimann← K. Jackson
83'
Milan van Ewijk
84'
K. Goudmijn← L. Thompson
89'
D. Brown← R. Nyambe
90+9'
Carl Rushworth
90+1'
K. Kesler-Hayden← E. Mason-Clark
90+5'
J. Allen← V. Torp
90+7'
R. Borges Rodrigues← B. Thomas-Asante
90+1'
E. Simms← H. Wright

Possession

48%Derby

Shots

13Derby

Pass accuracy

49%Derby

Statistics

DerbyCoventry
Overview
48%Possession52%
13Total Shots20
1.43Expected Goals (xG)3.24
6Corners5
14Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots20
4On Target10
5Off Target6
4Blocked4
5Inside Box15
8Outside Box5
Passing
48%Possession52%
308Total Passes352
237Accurate Passes281
77%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
-0.88Goals Prevented-0.88
Discipline
14Fouls11
2Yellow Cards5
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Derby vs Coventry

Coventry beat Derby 5-3 in Championship on August 16, 2025.

Goals: B. Thomas (7'), C. Elder (12'), H. Wright (25' pen), C. Morris (45' pen), E. Adams (50'), B. Thomas-Asante (72'), E. Mason-Clark (75'), V. Torp (79').

Coventry controlled possession (52%) and registered 20 shots to 13.

The match was played at Pride Park in Derby.