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Derby vs Coventry — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
M. Harness 48'
M. Clarke 23'
3/11/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Derby36%
×Draw28%
Coventry37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.19
Coventry
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 16 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Coventry
1.41

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Coventry
1.15

finishing

Derby+0.06on par
Coventry-0.10scores less

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw
63%
Derby or Coventry
72%
Draw or Coventry
64%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
15%
Coventry wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
70%
Derby 2+ goals
33%
Derby 3+ goals
12%
Coventry 1+ goals
70%
Coventry 2+ goals
34%
Coventry 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
49%
Coventry (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 39 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.15 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Coventry defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Coventry attack 1.41 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Derby scores more
36%
level
28%
Coventry scores more
37%

Coventry at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
M. ClarkeDerbyDerby · D
8.2

Match Events

23'
M. Clarke↳ M. Harness
28'
Harrison Armstrong
46'
Jake Bidwell
48'
M. Harness↳ C. Elder
54'
Marcus Harness
64'
E. Mason-Clark← J. Bidwell
64'
J. Dasilva← E. Simms
71'
N. Bassette← J. Eccles
88'
K. Jackson← J. Yates
90+3'
K. Goudmijn← L. Thompson

Possession

31%Derby

Shots

6Derby

Pass accuracy

43%Derby

Statistics

DerbyCoventry
Overview
31%Possession69%
6Total Shots13
0.79Expected Goals (xG)0.74
4Corners8
6Fouls8
Shots
6Total Shots13
2On Target4
2Off Target3
2Blocked6
4Inside Box6
2Outside Box7
Passing
31%Possession69%
219Total Passes492
136Accurate Passes410
62%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
-0.78Goals Prevented-0.78
Discipline
6Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1
5Offsides2

Championship: Derby 2–0 Coventry

Derby beat Coventry 2-0 in Championship on March 11, 2025.

Goals: M. Clarke (23'), M. Harness (48').

Coventry controlled possession (69%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.