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Derby vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
C. Kazim-Richards 83'
G. Hamer 90+1'
12/1/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 15Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 46+ matches

Derby36%
×Draw27%
Coventry37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.22
Coventry
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 58 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Coventry
1.44

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Coventry
1.22

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Coventry+0.09on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw
63%
Derby or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
64%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
15%
Coventry wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
70%
Derby 2+ goals
34%
Derby 3+ goals
12%
Coventry 1+ goals
71%
Coventry 2+ goals
35%
Coventry 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
50%
Coventry (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Coventry defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Coventry attack 1.44 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Derby scores more
36%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
37%

Coventry at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
N. ByrneDerbyDerby · D
8.3

Match Events

11'
Colin Kazim-Richards
63'
Duane Holmes
68'
Krystian Bielik
72'
Callum O'Hare
77'
W. Jobello← J. Shipley
77'
M. Biamou← T. Walker
80'
J. Stretton← D. Holmes
80'
K. Jóźwiak← T. Lawrence
83'
C. Kazim-Richards↳ N. Byrne
85'
L. Østigård← S. McCallum
87'
Matthew Clarke
89'
A. Bakayoko← C. OHare
90'
C. Davies← N. Byrne
90+1'
G. Hamer

Possession

53%Derby

Shots

12Derby

Pass accuracy

52%Derby

Statistics

DerbyCoventry
Overview
53%Possession47%
12Total Shots9
2Corners2
13Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots9
3On Target3
8Off Target5
1Blocked1
9Inside Box4
3Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
498Total Passes431
398Accurate Passes318
80%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls13
4Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Championship: Derby 1–1 Coventry

Derby and Coventry drew 1-1 in Championship on December 1, 2020.

Goals: C. Kazim-Richards (83'), G. Hamer (90+1').

Derby controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.