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Derby vs Charlton — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Charlton
Charlton
J. Knight 77', 10'
L. Taylor 83' (pen)
12/30/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 25Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Derby47%
×Draw27%
Charlton26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.39
Charlton
0.95

Derby creates 46% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 21 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Charlton
0.89

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Charlton
1.55

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw
74%
Derby or Charlton
73%
Draw or Charlton
53%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
23%
Charlton wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
75%
Derby 2+ goals
40%
Derby 3+ goals
16%
Charlton 1+ goals
61%
Charlton 2+ goals
25%
Charlton 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
65%
Charlton (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.39

Charlton attack 0.89 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Derby scores more
47%
level
27%
Charlton scores more
26%

Derby at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38
J. KnightDerbyDerby · M
8.7

Match Events

10'
J. Knight
17'
Krystian Bielik
39'
Naby Sarr
46'
L. Taylor← M. Bonne
69'
Conor Gallagher
69'
J. Davison← N. Sarr
70'
B. Dempsey← A. Oshilaja
77'
J. Knight↳ M. Bird
80'
Chris Solly
81'
Darren Pratley
83'
L. TaylorPenalty
87'
Duane Holmes
90'
Ben Dempsey
90+5'
C. Forsyth← M. Waghorn
90+2'
M. Whittaker← J. Marriott

Possession

39%Derby

Shots

12Derby

Pass accuracy

47%Derby

Statistics

DerbyCharlton
Overview
39%Possession61%
12Total Shots11
5Corners2
5Fouls21
Shots
12Total Shots11
7On Target5
3Off Target4
2Blocked2
10Inside Box5
2Outside Box6
Passing
39%Possession61%
318Total Passes485
216Accurate Passes370
68%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
5Fouls21
1Yellow Cards5
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Derby vs Charlton

Derby beat Charlton 2-1 in Championship on December 30, 2019.

Goals: J. Knight (10', 77'), L. Taylor (83' pen).

Charlton controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.