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Charlton vs Derby — League One 2018

Charlton
Charlton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Derby
Derby
2/3/2024League OneLeague One · Round 31The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Charlton38%
×Draw27%
Derby36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Charlton
1.31
Derby
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 141 home / 46 away

creates per match

Charlton
1.65
Derby
1.39

allows per match

Charlton
1.13
Derby
0.98

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Charlton or draw
64%
Charlton or Derby
73%
Draw or Derby
62%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+
17%
Derby wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals
73%
Charlton 2+ goals
38%
Charlton 3+ goals
14%
Derby 1+ goals
72%
Derby 2+ goals
36%
Derby 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)
52%
Derby (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 141 matches

Derby away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Derby defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.31

Derby attack 1.39 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Charlton scores more
38%
level
27%
Derby scores more
36%

Charlton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Charlton vs Derby

Derby beat Charlton 1-0 in League One on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at The Valley in London.