Derby 1–1 Charlton: Result & Stats | Championship

Derby

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Charlton

M. Clarke 79'

J. Bree 37'

9/30/2025

Championship · Round 8Pride Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Derby41%

×Draw28%

Charlton31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.07

Derby

1.26

Charlton

1.07

Derby creates 18% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 5 away

1.24

creates per match

0.98

1.17

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Derby

1.24

Charlton

0.98

allows per match

Derby

1.17

Charlton

1.28

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Derby-0.04on par

Charlton-0.38scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw

69%

Derby or Charlton

72%

Draw or Charlton

59%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

18%

Charlton wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

72%

Derby 2+ goals

36%

Derby 3+ goals

13%

Charlton 1+ goals

66%

Charlton 2+ goals

29%

Charlton 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

56%

Charlton (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.24 + Charlton defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.26

Charlton attack 0.98 + Derby defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Derby scores more

41%

level

28%

Charlton scores more

31%

Derby at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

M. Clarke

Derby · D

8.2

Match Events

37'

J. Bree↳ G. Docherty

46'

D. Ozoh← E. Adams

57'

R. Burke← J. Bree

57'

H. Knibbs← S. Carey

57'

M. Leaburn← C. Kelman

65'

Ben Brereton Díaz

68'

A. Weimann← B. Brereton Diaz

68'

J. Ward← M. Johnston

71'

David Ozoh

77'

T. Olaofe← T. Campbell

79'

M. Clarke↳ L. Travis

84'

K. Jackson← B. Clark

88'

L. Salvesen← P. Agyemang

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyCharlton

Overview

60%Possession40%

18Total Shots11

1.81Expected Goals (xG)0.60

5Corners2

11Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots11

3On Target3

7Off Target4

8Blocked4

15Inside Box10

3Outside Box1

Passing

60%Possession40%

454Total Passes306

354Accurate Passes209

78%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

0.14Goals Prevented0.14

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0