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Derby vs Bournemouth — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
T. Lawrence 69' (pen), 62'
J. Knight 13'
D. Solanke 38'
J. Anthony 19'
11/21/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 18Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Derby33%
×Draw29%
Bournemouth39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.07
Bournemouth
1.19

Bournemouth creates 11% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 50 away

creates per match

Derby
1.23
Bournemouth
1.40

allows per match

Derby
0.99
Bournemouth
0.92

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Bournemouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Derby or draw
61%
Derby or Bournemouth
71%
Draw or Bournemouth
67%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
13%
Bournemouth wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
66%
Derby 2+ goals
29%
Derby 3+ goals
9%
Bournemouth 1+ goals
70%
Bournemouth 2+ goals
33%
Bournemouth 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
46%
Bournemouth (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.99 · 141 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.23 + Bournemouth defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.07

Bournemouth attack 1.40 + Derby defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Derby scores more
33%
level
29%
Bournemouth scores more
39%

Bournemouth at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
T. LawrenceDerbyDerby · M
8.2

Match Events

13'
J. Knight↳ M. Bird
19'
J. Anthony
22'
C. Kazim-Richards← S. Baldock
38'
D. Solanke↳ J. Lerma
53'
Philip Billing
61'
G. Kilkenny← L. Cook
62'
T. Lawrence↳ C. Kazim-Richards
69'
T. LawrencePenalty
75'
M. Rogers← J. Lerma
75'
J. Lowe← L. Davis
83'
R. Stearman← F. Ebosele
90+7'
C. Forsyth← L. Buchanan

Possession

47%Derby

Shots

9Derby

Pass accuracy

49%Derby

Statistics

DerbyBournemouth
Overview
47%Possession53%
9Total Shots12
3Corners4
7Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots12
3On Target5
4Off Target6
2Blocked1
7Inside Box10
2Outside Box2
Passing
47%Possession53%
380Total Passes430
265Accurate Passes314
70%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
7Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
4Offsides3

Match Recap: Derby vs Bournemouth

Derby beat Bournemouth 3-2 in Championship on November 21, 2021.

Goals: J. Knight (13'), J. Anthony (19'), D. Solanke (38'), T. Lawrence (62', 69' pen).

Bournemouth controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.