Bournemouth 1–1 Derby: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Derby

Rodrigo Riquelme 81'

G. Shinnie 13'

10/31/2020

Championship · Round 9Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Bournemouth53%

×Draw24%

Derby23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.02

Bournemouth

1.69

Derby

1.02

Bournemouth creates 66% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 142 away

1.75

creates per match

1.07

0.98

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.75

Derby

1.07

allows per match

Bournemouth

0.98

Derby

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

77%

Bournemouth or Derby

76%

Draw or Derby

47%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

29%

Derby wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

82%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

50%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

24%

Derby 1+ goals

64%

Derby 2+ goals

27%

Derby 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

70%

Derby (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

Derby away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.75 + Derby defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Derby attack 1.07 + Bournemouth defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bournemouth scores more

53%

level

24%

Derby scores more

23%

Bournemouth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

G. Shinnie

Derby · M

8.5

Match Events

2'

Jason Knight

12'

Philip Billing

13'

G. Shinnie↳ M. Waghorn

24'

Diego Rico

46'

J. King← J. Stanislas

61'

D. Holmes← W. Rooney

69'

D. Brooks← J. Stacey

76'

Rodrigo Riquelme← P. Billing

81'

A. Wisdom← M. te Wierik

81'

Rodrigo Riquelme↳ Diego Rico

90+2'

L. Sibley← M. Waghorn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthDerby

Overview

69%Possession31%

10Total Shots10

4Corners1

13Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots10

5On Target4

4Off Target3

1Blocked3

8Inside Box3

2Outside Box7

Passing

69%Possession31%

600Total Passes272

497Accurate Passes157

83%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0