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Derby vs Birmingham — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
Preview
11:30
Birmingham
Birmingham
9/12/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7Pride Park
Big match
36%
Derby
model favours
36%31%33%
1–0
likely score
68%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Derby36%
×Draw31%
Birmingham33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.03
Birmingham
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

creates per match

Derby
1.08
Birmingham
0.79

allows per match

Derby
1.14
Birmingham
0.98

finishing

Derby+0.11scores more
Birmingham-0.46scores less

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Derby or draw
67%
Derby or Birmingham
69%
Draw or Birmingham
64%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
14%
Birmingham wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
64%
Derby 2+ goals
28%
Derby 3+ goals
9%
Birmingham 1+ goals
62%
Birmingham 2+ goals
25%
Birmingham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
53%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.14 · 16 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.98 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.08 + Birmingham defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.03

Birmingham attack 0.79 + Derby defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Derby scores more
36%
level
31%
Birmingham scores more
33%

Derby at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Birmingham fall short of their xG (0.7 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Derby
Direct / counter-attacking
Birmingham
Balanced
45%Possession47%
74%Pass accuracy72%
10.1Shots10.8
1.08xGBiggest gap1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
DerbyBirmingham

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Derby
2
Draws
2
Birmingham
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
1–01–12–20–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Derby
LWLWL
Birmingham
WWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derby face Birmingham (Championship)

Championship returns with Derby hosting Birmingham. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Derby host Birmingham at Pride Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.