Derby 1–2 Birmingham: Result & Stats | Championship

Derby

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Birmingham

C. Kazim-Richards 36'

L. Jutkiewicz 84', 62'

4/24/2021

Championship · Round 44Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Derby42%

×Draw30%

Birmingham29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.92

Derby

1.17

Birmingham

0.92

Derby creates 27% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 8 away

1.25

creates per match

0.78

1.06

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Derby

1.25

Birmingham

0.78

allows per match

Derby

1.06

Birmingham

1.08

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Derby-0.03on par

Birmingham-0.28scores less

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Derby or draw

71%

Derby or Birmingham

70%

Draw or Birmingham

58%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

18%

Birmingham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

69%

Derby 2+ goals

33%

Derby 3+ goals

11%

Birmingham 1+ goals

60%

Birmingham 2+ goals

23%

Birmingham 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

59%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.06 · 32 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.25 + Birmingham defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Birmingham attack 0.78 + Derby defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Derby scores more

42%

level

30%

Birmingham scores more

29%

Derby at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Jutkiewicz

Birmingham · F

8.2

Match Events

36'

C. Kazim-Richards↳ L. Buchanan

46'

Iván Sánchez← S. Seddon

53'

San José← G. Gardner

53'

A. Halilović← R. McGree

62'

L. Jutkiewicz

75'

L. Sibley← L. Buchanan

75'

M. Bird← C. Kazim-Richards

75'

A. Miller← J. Leko

84'

L. Jutkiewicz↳ Iván Sánchez

87'

P. Roberts← G. Shinnie

88'

K. Jóźwiak← J. Knight

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyBirmingham

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots7

0Corners3

13Fouls22

Shots

7Total Shots7

2On Target2

4Off Target2

1Blocked3

3Inside Box6

4Outside Box1

Passing

43%Possession57%

274Total Passes344

156Accurate Passes218

57%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls22

2Offsides4